> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.abtestly.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Business impact projection

> Turn a winning lift into a currency figure. What the projection assumes, and where it can mislead you.

The results page shows a small **projected impact** line next to a
winning verdict. Something like:

> Projected impact: +\$4,200/month at current traffic.

Useful for showing a stakeholder "why we should ship this". Easy to
over-read if you do not know what it is assuming.

## What it is doing

Simple math:

1. Take the observed **lift** on the primary goal (say +3.2 %
   conversion rate).
2. Take **current traffic** on the tested pages (visitors per month,
   from the ledger).
3. Multiply. For a revenue goal, use the observed revenue per
   converter; for a click goal, use the value you configured on the
   goal.

That is the whole model. No forecasting, no seasonality adjustment,
no ML. The math is transparent so the number is easy to trust or to
question.

## What it assumes

* **The lift holds.** The observed lift is what the test measured. It
  can shrink in production (regression to the mean), especially on
  early or under-powered tests.
* **Traffic holds.** Current-month traffic is a poor proxy for
  Black Friday.
* **The value holds.** For a revenue goal, the goal's average value is
  used. Big shifts in AOV break the projection.

## Where it can mislead

* **Very small samples.** A hundred-visitor test showing +3.2 % lift
  probably does not have a real 3.2 % effect. The projection uses the
  point estimate, not the lower bound of the CI. Read the CI
  alongside.
* **Guardrail-breaking winners.** The projection assumes only the
  primary goal moves. If the variant tanks a guardrail, the honest
  impact is smaller than the projection shows.
* **Cannibalized traffic.** If the test's page competes with another
  page for the same conversion, a win in one place can be a loss
  somewhere else the projection does not see.

## How to use it

* **As a magnitude.** Is this a $200/month test or a $20,000/month
  test? The projection is honest to an order of magnitude.
* **As a stakeholder-friendly summary.** "This is worth shipping"
  reads better with a currency figure.
* **Not as a business plan.** For a real forecast, take the lower CI
  bound, discount for regression, and add your own market
  assumptions.

## Value for non-revenue goals

For a click or custom event, the projection reads the goal's
**default value** if one is set. Configure it in the goal builder's
"revenue value per fire" field.

If no value is set, the projection line is omitted and the results
page shows the raw lift only.